Reverberations of the Ukraine Crisis

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

For Ukraine, Russia's ongoing invasion presents an existential crisis unseen in generations. It may yet prove to be so for the rest of us, too. Already, it looks likely to be a watershed geopolitical moment, on the order of the fall of the Berlin Wall or September 11.

Consequently, I have spent much of the past few weeks watching events there closely and trying to understand the implications. As part of that exercise, last week I published an analysis at Democracy in Exile, the journal of Democracy in the Arab World Now. (For those who don't know it, DAWN is the organization founded by Saudi journalist and rights activist Jamal Khashoggi before his assassination.)

Expanding on a piece I wrote last month for the Atlantic Council, the analysis explores Algeria's diplomatic positioning as well as how this new geopolitical crisis could impact the country's future. In short, it's all about the long game:

"For all the complex calculus it has imposed on Algerian diplomats, the implications of the Ukraine crisis for Algeria's immediate economic outlook have been more clearly positive. However, this rosy initial picture may grow more mixed in the months ahead."

Read the full analysis here: "Russia's War in Ukraine Will Relieve the Pressure on Algeria's Leaders—for Now" or in Arabic here: "حرب روسيا في أوكرانيا ستخفف الضغط على القادة الجزائريين في الوقت الحالي." As always, your feedback is welcome.